Thursday, August 08, 2019

Analysis of Indian Stock Market for 8th August, 2019

Yesterday the RBI policy rate cut which was more than expected i.e. 35 basis instead of 25 basis could not bring the markets up. Cash stocks did certainly bounce from lower levels but the frontline large cap stocks were missing in rally so the indices were lower.

US markets recovered from sharp losses yesterday. Overall sentiment remains negative but at lower levels one is seeing buying emerging across the world markets. Our markets today will face the weekly Nifty and Bank Nifty clearing which has most of the times remain quite volatile. At current levels we will wait for buying to emerge to take a fresh buying position intraday.

Level wise Nifty has been in downtrend since 8th July 2019 and we will consider it to come in buy only when it closes above a certain level. (the daily level of Nifty is sent with the message in the evening)

The broader trend of cash stocks is seen by the percentage number of stocks which are above important support levels. Currently they are just 15% of stocks which are above support and 85% stocks are below support. So yesterday some cash stocks did quite well from deep oversold levels. When stocks above support are below 50% we consider cash stocks to be in downtrend and above 50% we consider cash stocks to be in uptrend. Just for your information the cash stocks percentage has been below 50% for majority of the time in last 4 months. This percentage when comes below 10%, we consider the markets as quite oversold  and when it is above 90% as quite overbought. Here we also have to see the broad trend of US markets.

Some of cash stocks look too good for buying for long term at these levels but one has to be quite careful in choosing quality else they will test your patience.

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